A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
